Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Today was a Cover-Up By the Fed & Mainstream Media


My Dear Extended Family,

Because of the volatility you experienced in gold today, and the absolute fact that it was an MSM cover operation of today’s covert operation, which was one of the largest injections of QE liquidity into the Euro banking system ever, you must know the facts.
I have done the following interview with Eric King of www.KingWorldNews.com in order to shed light on what really took place which, market wise, is confirmed by the general equities ho-hum action while the mindless algorithms drove gold lower.

Click here to listen to the full audio interview…

I would not bother and ask you to please use your precious time to listen to this unless I felt the message was critical for maintaining a correct understanding of exactly what has taken place.
Regards,
Jim


Courtesy of Eric King of www.KingWorldNews.com

Dear CIGAs,

Today legendary trader and investor Jim Sinclair told King World News that today’s action was a cover-up by the Federal Reserve and the mainstream media. Sinclair also laid out for KWN readers globally the exact sequence of the cover-up and how it was orchestrated. Here is what Sinclair had to say about the shocking events that took place today: “The power behind the equity markets right now is liquidity and everybody knows it. It’s not improving earnings and it’s clearly not a broad globally improving economy, but rather improving liquidity.”
Jim Sinclair continues:
“If, in fact, what Bernanke attempted to tell the investment world today, that QE may not be necessary because of a modest improvement in the statistics of unemployment, if that was truly to be believed, then the stock market should have been off 800 points while gold was gold was down $100. Because the same thing moving the stock market is what’s moving the metals and that is pure liquidity.
When asked about Jean-Marie Eveillard’s comments earlier today on KWN that central banks were desperate and intervening in the gold market, Sinclair responded, “Let’s go by the intervention that started out in the morning….
Click here to read the full interview…

 

 

Jim’s Mailbox


Dear CIGAs,

The following is a summary of key statistics gathered from FDIC press releases regarding bank failures during 2011. The numbers are as follows:
Total Bank Failures:      92
Combined Assets:        $35.97 billion
Combined Deposits:     $32.06 billion
Total Estimated Cost:   $ 7.18 billion (approx. 22% of deposits).

Loss Sharing Remains Prevalent
Throughout 2011, the FDIC continued to enter into loss sharing agreements as a means of resolving the majority of failures involving larger institutions, and continued to agree to share losses on a high percentage of the assets taken over.
Of the 92 failures in 2011, 58 were resolved by way of the FDIC entering into loss sharing agreements with the acquiring banks.
The total asset value of the 58 failures resolved by way of loss sharing was $27.13 billion, approximately $468 million per bank on average.
The total asset value of the 34 failures resolved without loss sharing was $8.84 billion, approximately $276 million per bank on average.
In the 58 resolutions in which the FDIC employed loss sharing, the acquiring banks took on $26.82 billion of the failed banks assets and the FDIC agreed to share losses on $18 billion, approximately 67% of the value of the assets taken over.  That means the FDIC continues to take on the lions’ share of the risk that the failed banks’ hardest-to-value assets will turn out to be worth less over time than originally estimated.
The total value of assets under FDIC loss sharing agreements since 2008 is now approximately $202 billion.
 
Failures Continue To Show Dramatic Asset Overvaluations
The FDIC’s press releases regarding each bank failure provide a means to approximate the extent to which bank management has overstated the value of the failed bank’s assets. Combining the statistics from many different failures over time, we can get a sense of what has become the “permissible” level of overvaluation in the wake of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) having rolled back fair value requirements in April 2009.
The level of FASB-blessed overvaluation is determined by comparing the asset values reported by management to the actual, present market value of a given bank’s assets. In the case of banks that have just failed, a realistic estimate of the actual, present market value of their assets can be obtained by subtracting the FDIC’s estimated cost of protecting depositors from the amount of deposits reported at the time of the failure.
For all of 2011, the FDIC estimated it would cost $7.18 billion to protect the combined $32.06 billion in deposits at the 92 failed banks. That means the FDIC estimated the market value of all the failed banks’ assets to be about $24.88 billion. Comparing this number to the reported asset values, the indication is that bank management overstated asset values by $11.09 billion, or 45%.
There is every reason to believe that over-valuations of this degree prevail throughout the banking sector and are not limited to this group of failed institutions. Almost all of the banks that failed in 2011 had been under close scrutiny by their federal regulators for a significant amount of time prior to their failures. It is reasonable to infer that under such close scrutiny, bank management would not have been emboldened to value assets more than permissible under current FASB standards.
If we assume that overvaluations of even half this level – say 20% — prevail throughout the banking sector, there is barely a single institution that would remain solvent were its assets valued at market. This is one more reason to believe what we read constantly on this site, that QE to infinity is the only option for Western Central Banks and there will be no end to the flood of liquidity any time in the foreseeable future.

Sincerely yours,
CIGA Richard Belfanti




Dear Jim,

I thought you might be interested in my article published by Forbes today.
Also, I understand from Elizabeth Currier that the Committee for Monetary Research and Education has invited you to speak at the next dinner in New York on May 17th. I am on the board of that organization and, of course, it would be a great honor to have you participate.

Best,
CIGA Dan


Dear Dan,
I will be there.
Jim





Jump the Creek for Silver

CIGA Eric

I agree with Jim, silver more a game than monetary solution, but it’s still one heck of a game.
Paper silver keeps chewing through resistance (swing highs) on increasing volume. The absorption of supply, i.e. the breach of resistance on increasing volume, illustrates what Richard Wyckoff described as a technical sign of strength (SOS). The 9/22/11 gap from 36.22 to 38.34 represents one of the last point of supply for silver before the test of $50. Silver’s trading action in and around the gap will help establish a time frame for the retest.
Silver ETF (SLV)
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More…

 

 

Bernanke Tries Talking Down Commodities


Click here to visit Trader Dan’s website…

Dear CIGAs,
Today was Fed Chairman Bernanke’s chance to testisfy before the Congress’ Financial Services Committee. Here is a quick synopsis of his comments as I see them.
"The economy is getting better based on what we can see of the employment numbers but it is not growing at a fast enough clip to justify any immediate change in our accomodative monetary policy. The uptick in hiring has been helped by this policy and any change to it at the present time is not warranted. Real Estate is still a concern. Us fiscal condition is dire and faces a serious challenge at the end of this year. Inflation is not a concern although temporary rises in energy prices bear monitoring".
There you basically have it.
Based on this testimony, gold and silver were murdered. The supposed reason? – We are told that traders were expecting QE3 to be imminent and were disappointed because the usually dovish Bernanke did not sound quite as dovish as before. Thus the metals were hammered mercilessly lower.
Excuse me – but as a trader who watches these markets each and every day for more hours than I would prefer anymore, I have not seen any analyst explain the reason for the  heretofore rally in the metals as traders EXPECTING AN IMMINENT QE3 program to launch.
The reason for the rally has been expectations by the market that Central Banks would keep the liquidity spighots open for the foreseeable future (near zero interest rate policy coupled with QE out of Europe and the UK) and thus create an environment in which there was little opportunity cost for buying the metals. This has been generating RISK TRADES in which traders/investors buy both stocks and commodities and generally sell off the Dollar, which was particularly pronounced after a rush back into the Euro once traders were convinced that the immediate fallout from the Greece debacle was past.
Comments this morning trying to explain the sell off in gold mentioned the failure of the metal to make it through the $1800 level and downside stops as the culprit but ironically they are deathly quiet in regards to silver, which only yesterday had staged a MASSIVE UPSIDE BREAKOUT on strong volume out of a congestion zone. Yet today we saw a nearly 8% wipe out in silver which completey erased yesterday’s breakout and then some.
Click here to read the full article…

 

 

In The News Today


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

CIGA Green Hornet hits a bull’s eye. This is the game changer for Africa which will accelerate my prediction of a new role for the continent politically, socially and economically. Tanzania has big natural gas fields which will shortly power the grid. The African Giant just woke up.

East Africa hits it big in oil, gas boom Published: Feb. 29, 2012 at 11:13 AM
MAPUTO, Mozambique, Feb. 29 (UPI) — East Africa is emerging as the new hot zone for oil and natural gas exploration, with major discoveries by Anadarko of the United States and Italy’s Eni in the Indian Ocean off Mozambique and by Norway’s Statoil off neighboring Tanzania.
Even war-wracked Somalia, further north in the Horn of Africa, is part of the drive for energy resources in the region, with a Canadian company, Africa Oil, expecting to start producing within the next couple of months in the northern autonomous enclave of Puntland.
But the big prize there is the offshore oil and gas fields that Somali officials say contain more than 100 billion barrels of oil, more than Kuwait. If that’s the case, Somalia, torn by war since 1991, would become the seventh largest oil nation.
Deposits of similar magnitude are believed to lie under the Indian Ocean along the coast of East Africa, enough to transform the ramshackle economies of countries like Mozambique, an impoverished former Portuguese colony.
In Uganda, the big Lake Albert oil field, discovered in 2006 by London’s Tullow Oil, is expected to start production soon, eventually reaching 150,000-350,000 barrels per day.
More…





Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Follow the money, and you find your way directly back to the US Federal Reserve.
QE to infinity is guaranteed.
$2111 gold will offer gold opposition from the interveners as $1764 gold is doing now. However, gold will exceed both easily.

ECB hands out $712-billion in loans to banks DAVID McHUGH
Published Wednesday, Feb. 29, 2012 5:42AM EST

The European Central Bank has made €529.5-billion ($712.4-billion U.S.) in low-interest loans to banks in the second round of a massive credit infusion that has been credited with easing the euro zone debt crisis.
The offer of credit for three years was taken up Wednesday by 800 banks. The uptake was modestly higher than the €489-billion ($657.9-billion U.S.) handed out to 523 banks at a first offering on Dec. 21. Banks used some of the money from the first round of loans to buy government bonds.
That lowered borrowing costs for hard-pressed governments struggling to maintain large amounts of debt, and eased fears of a market meltdown from Europe’s troubles with too much government debt.
The ECB loans, given against collateral such as bonds or other securities, cost banks the average of the ECB’s benchmark rate over the life of the loan. Right now that’s 1 per cent.
Analysts had expected the amount of new loans to come in just under that for the first offering.
The first offer of three-year, low-interest credit to banks on Dec. 21 has been credited with easing fears of a financial meltdown in the euro zone due to lack of confidence with governments with too much debt and too little growth. The cash infusion removed fears that banks in Europe might have collapsed because it couldn’t pay off bonds or other debt coming due. Following the first credit infusion, bank funding markets frozen in late 2011 began to thaw , as some banks have been able to issue new debt.
More…

 

 

Today’s Window Dressing Fall In Gold


My Dear Friends,

Please do not be bothered by today’s intervention. The following news is what creates the absolute need for QE.
It is the thesis of my Formula of 2006 of no major recovery that gives the foundation to my thesis of QE to Infinity.

Treasury Yield Descending Signals Slowdown By John Detrixhe and Daniel Kruger – Feb 29, 2012 8:55 AM MT
The $10 trillion market for US Treasuries is signaling that the economic recovery may be poised to weaken even as consumer confidence rises toward pre-recession levels.
Yields (USGG10YR) on 10-year Treasury notes, the benchmark for everything from mortgage rates to corporate bonds, fell as low as 1.89 percent yesterday, down from this year’s high of 2.09 percent on Jan. 23, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The yield averaged 2.76 percent in 2011 and 3.19 percent in 2010.
More…




As an example, there was additional confirming news today concerning QE, if you follow the money, financed by swaps emanating from the US Fed.
Swaps are short term in nature but can be extended at each due date to infinity. Never let the word Federal Reserve Swap fool you.
This day’s fall in gold is pure window dressing. Do not be concerned.

Respectfully,
Jim





CIGA Ken’s Commentary
Could this be a right shoulder coming into place?
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LTRO Financing a little higher than expected/gold and silver bombed after Bernanke threatens to limit QEIII


Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen; The bankers used the cover of Bernanke's speech to congress in that he was "taking the punchbowl" away. This again is complete balderdash as somebody has to finance the big USA deficit of 1.2 trillion dollars.The USA is continually engaging in QEIII and you could tell by the rising M2 levels and the increase in the Fed balance sheet. Yesterday I remarked that




Ron Paul Defeats Obama In Head To Head Polling


Here's a chart you won't see anywhere in the mainstream media - not the right, and certainly not the left. According to Rasmussen's 2012 Presidential Election Matchups, which pit Obama against any of the four GOP presidential candidates, while the balance of challengers certainly appear to have no chance of defeating the incumbent (something we touched upon yesterday), today, for the first time, Ron Paul has managed to unseat the standing president, by a thin margin of 43 to 41, for the first time in this series.




Guest Post: And The Douchebag Of The Year Award Goes To……

Unless February 29th is the new April Fool’s Day, I’m pretty sure  Alan Dlugash locked up DOTY with this remark:
People who don’t have money don’t understand the stress.   Could you imagine what it’s like to say I got three kids in private school, I have to think about pulling them out?   How do you do that?”
Dluglash is describing the horror of scraping by on $350,000 a year.   Really.  How could you lucky bastards ever understand?




Complete Paulson 2011 Letter

There are those who voraciously, and blindly, read any and all hedge fund reports, allowing the already useless information to enter one brain hemisphere and exit the other, just so they can brag that they read such and such's monthly or year end letter. Frankly, we pity them, especially when in their attempt to ape success they confuse luck (which is responsible for 99% of hedge fund outliers) for skill, and in doing so constrain their minds even more. At least hopefully they don't spend money on self-improvement books. As for trading recommendations, by the time an idea is in writing, the time to implement it is long gone. Anyway, for precisely this subet of people we provide the Paulson 2011 year end letter. Which is 102 pages. It is amazing how when one is printing money, one can get away with two paragraphs of year end ruminations and the LPs will be delighted. When, however one has brought AUM from $32 billion to under $20 billion net of redemptions, much more reading material is required to justify the 2 and 20, especially if the proceeds are used to invest in AAPL (and speaking of Apple, we wonder how long before the company starts charging a fee of 2 and 20 from all of its shareholders). We won't spend much time dissecting the letter of a fund which blindly invested nearly half a billion in a company that two kids with an office exposed as fraud, suffice to copy and paste the following gem: "We believe this outperformance demonstrates our superior security analysis and selection due to our research edge." Yup, mmmhmmm. All this and much more in the enclosed paperweight.




Sean Corrigan Crucifies MMT

While hardly needing a full-on onslaught by an Austrian thinker, when even some fairly simplistic reductio ad abusrdum thought experiments should suffice (boosting global GDP by a few million percent simply by building a death star comes to mind), Diapason's Sean Corrigan has decided to take MMT, also known as "Modern Monetary Theory", to the woodshed in his latest missive in a grammatical, syntaxic (replete with the usual 200+ word multi-clause sentences) and stylistic juggernaut, that only Corrigan is capable of. So sit back in that easy chair, grab your favorite bottle of rehypothecated Ouzo, and let the monetary hate wash through you.





Only 54% Of Young Adults In America Have A Job

A month ago, Zero Hedge readers were stunned to learn that unemployment among Europe's young adults has exploded as a result of the European financial crisis, and peaking anywhere between 46% in the case of Greece all they way to 51% for Spain. Which makes us wonder what the reaction will be to the discovery that when it comes to young adults (18-24) in the US, the employment rate is just barely above half, or 54%, which just happens to be the lowest in 64 years, and 7% worse than when Obama took office promising a whole lot of change 3 years ago.




If The Market Rolls Over Here….


If this rally runs out of steam, history suggests the next move down could plumb depths not seen in years.
If the market rolls over here, the next bottom might be a lot lower than most players think possible. After all, the “news” is all positive: Europe’s debt crisis is now resolved; employment in the U.S. is trending up, GDP is growing nicely, etc. etc. etc.
As food for thought, here are two charts, courtesy of frequent contributor B.C., that suggest the good news might not only be priced in, but it might abruptly cease flowing.
The first chart is of the S&P 500 from 1973 to the present. The current rally has stalled right at a multi-year line of resistance, and a potential A-B-C pattern in a long-term channel suggests a return visit to the March ’08 lows around 666, or perhaps even lower.
Read More @ OfTwoMinds.com


 

Media Finally Paying Attention to Obama’s Eligibility?

from WND:

Poll after poll in recent months has indicated that Americans have a high level of concern over Barack Obama’s eligibility to be president, with one poll showing fully half of the nation wants Congress to investigate the question.
But reporters for the traditional media – networks, major newspapers, major news corporations and conglomerates – mostly have giggled when talk turns to the serious question of just what the U.S. Constitution requires of presidents.
Nevertheless, media organizations from all political persuasions are seeking admittance to a news conference to be held by Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, Ariz.
The event is tomorrow at 1 p.m. Mountain Standard Time in Phoenix, 3 p.m. Eastern, and will be live-streamed by WND.
The topic of discussion will be an investigation by Arpaio’s Cold Case Posse into concerns about Obama’s eligibility. It’s the first time an official law enforcement report has addressed many of the allegations about the presumptive 2012 Democratic nominee for president.
Read More @ WND.com




Silver Update: 2/29/12 Bernanke Busted

 

The Silver Bullet and the Silver Shield – SBSS 17. Warren Buffett Paradigm Puppet

[Ed. Note: Part 1. Part 2. Part 3. Part 4. Part 5. Part 6. Part 7. Part 8. Part 9. Part 10. Part 11. Part 12. Part 13. Part 14. Part 15. Part 16.]
from TruthNeverTold:



Chris Duane on the Leap Day Metals Massacre – 02-29-2012

from The Financial Survival Network:
Leap Day, February 29, 2012 was a momentous day for the precious metals markets. Gold and silver were slammed from 10am EST onward. Millions of ounces of unbacked paper gold and silver stampeded into the markets, destroying all weak holders in the process. But one must wonder how many real weak metals holders are left. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke testified before Congress today, and coincidentally, precious metals raids often occur before, during, and after his testimony.
It’s interesting to note the purchasing power of silver has been increasing over the past 50 years. In the early 1960′s one silver dollar bought about four gallons of gasoline. Today, the same silver dollar buys around 8 gallons, but it has gone as high as 12 gallons. So much for paper based “assets.”
Click Here to Listen to the Podcast





The Schiff Machine

by Jeffrey Tucker, Whiskey and Gun Powder:
You have probably seen Peter Schiff on television, not once but many times. Among the legions of indistinguishable talking heads out there, he stands out. He makes sense. He draws attention to reality. He is disregarding of the opinion conventions that prevail on the financial news networks and just comes right out and says what few others are willing to say.
He gets away with it because he makes sense, is super articulate, and is aggressive in getting his message out. Even if you don’t watch television (I don’t, not much), he has his own radio show, Youtube network, blog, social media accounts, and much more. You could probably spend a good part of your day living alongside the mind of Schiff and still not hear it all.
He is also the author of How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes. I assure you that there is nothing else like this on the market today. In many ways, it is a work of genius. Imagine learning the complexities of macroeconomics and the business cycle through a series of cleverly drawn cartoons that illustrate a kind of economic parable.
Read More @ WhiskeyAndGunPowder.com





ECB Lends €530bn To European Banks In Bid To Avert Credit Crunch

The European Central Bank has taken action to stave off a potentially disastrous credit crunch by lending €530bn (£444bn) to 800 banks.
by Angela Monaghan, Telegraph.co.uk:

The ECB intervened to ease credit conditions in the European banking system by offering cheap three-year loans to banks to boost liquidity.
It takes the total of the ECB’s funding “Bazooka” under its long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) to more than €1 trillion, after the Bank provided €489bn of money in late December. Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, has said that the first round averted a “major, major credit crunch”.
Sir Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, on Wednesday told the Treasury Select Committee that the ECB’s scheme had provided a crucial source of funding to banks, particularly in southern member countries of the eurozone, which had experienced a bank run in the second half of last year.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said the ECB’s move had limited the risk of a bank failure.
Read More @ Telegraph.co.uk




A Hard Reset Coming

by Gary Kinghorn, DollarVigilante.com:

You cannot make this stuff up. The Cheyenne, Wyoming Star-Tribune reported last week that state representatives advanced legislation to launch a study into what Wyoming should do in the event of a complete economic or political collapse of the United States. The task force would look at the feasibility of Wyoming issuing its own alternative currency (OK, good so far), and “examine conditions under which Wyoming would need to implement its own military draft (Really?), raise a standing army (to fend off looters from Idaho, no doubt), and acquire strike aircraft and (wait for it…) an aircraft carrier”.
Now, folks, there are some pretty bizarre hypothetical scenarios where you could see, maybe, California thinking about buying an aircraft carrier, but one of the last states that needs one is Wyoming. I know Cheney is from Wyoming and all, but, it’s a land-locked Rocky Mountain state that doesn’t even have a decent-sized lake!
And perhaps it goes without saying, but, one of the reasons the U.S. economy will eventually collapse is because they bought too many aircraft carriers and stuff like that, as opposed to letting people spend their money in more profitable ventures. So, how do Wyoming state legislators justify this?
Read More @ DollarVigilante.com





30 Stupid Things The Government Is Spending Money On

from End of The American Dream:

If you want to get paid for doing something stupid, just turn to the U.S. government. The U.S. government is paying researchers to play video games, it is paying researchers to study the effects of cocaine on Japanese quail and it has spent millions of dollars to train Chinese prostitutes to drink responsibly. The amount of money that the government wastes is absolutely horrifying. Do you remember all of that political wrangling over the debt ceiling deal last year? Do you remember how our politicians told us that there were cutting spending as much as they possibly could? Well, it was all a giant lie. As you will see below, the U.S. government is spending money on some of the most stupid things imaginable. What makes all of this even worse is that we are going into enormous amounts of debt in order to pay for all of this. We are borrowing billions of dollars a day in order to pay for stupid stuff that no government on earth should ever be paying for. Trust me, you are going to find it hard to believe some of the stuff in this list. It is almost inconceivable what our politicians are doing with our tax dollars.
The following are 30 incredibly stupid things that the federal government is spending money on….
Read More @ EndOfTheAmericanDream.com




MF Global White Knight Blows the Lid Off of The JP Morgan Shadow Banking Mafia





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China Dumps $100+ Billion In USTs In December Per Revised TIC Data; UK Is Now Russia's Shadow Buyer

Every year in February, the Treasury department releases its adjustment to foreign purchases of Treasury bond holdings as of the previous June (with revised and overriding estimates for all the intervening months in the interim, as well as previous monthly forecasts). It did that earlier today. And while many may have been expecting the revision to show that contrary to Zero Hedge claims China has in fact been building up its Treasury stake (following the now traditional transfer of UK purchases to China), the reality is that not only has China indeed been dumping US exposure (first reported by us previously when we observed the plunge in holdings in the Fed's custodial account), selling over $100 billion in Treasurys in December alone (bringing its total to $1152 billion, and down 12% from its June total of $1307 billion) but that probably far more curiously, the UK is no longer a shadow buyer of Chinese bond accumulation and instead has become a secret accumulator of Russian holdings.

 

Ron Paul To Ben Bernanke: "People Lose Trust In The Government Because You Lie To Them About Inflation"

Anytime Ron Paul sits across from Ben Bernanke you know sparks will fly. Sure enough, they did: starting 3 mins 50 seconds into the clip below, Ron Paul, guns blazing, asks the Chairman if he does his own shopping, if he is aware of what true inflation is, and if he knows that Americans don't trust the government because they are being lied to about inflation. And it only gets better, once Paul starts brandishing a silver coin. The punchline: "The Fed will self-destruct anyway when the money is gone" - amen. And ironically letting the Fed keep on doing what it is doing will achieve that in the fastest possible way. In fact, letting the system cannibalize itself with no further hindrances may be the best option currently available - just go to town.





Dow Jones 13,000 Crossed 52 Times in Past 3 Days, Wreaks Havoc With Retirement Plans Of Trader Community


Since the amount of coverage the Dow 13,000 has received on CNBC indicates that it is clearly the indicator for half of the actively trading population in America to hang its hat and retire, we can only commiserate with the retirement planners of America who have had to do only to undo retirement plans for all of 7 people give or take (as we said, half the entire active trading population of America, although we should clarify of the carbon-based variety) a whopping 52 times. Yup: that is the amount of times the 13,000 barrier has been crossed, and uncrossed in the past 3 days alone. We fail to recall any other Dow milestone that has been proven such a technical problem for the market to succumb. And that it closed below it after the second LTRO, and after today's Bernanke testimony is certainly not a good sign. On the other hand, all those people who are going bald from putting on and taking off the 13K hat, can finally take a break.




Worry About 2013, Panic About 2014.

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 2 hours ago
Worry about 2013. Be panicked about 2014. But this year a lot of good news is coming out. - *in CNBC with Larry Kudlow* *Related, SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)* *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* more »

 

 

Ron Paul Brutalizes The Bernank

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 3 hours ago
Some of the highlights are when Ron Paul asks Bernanke if he does his own grocery shopping. Bernanke says he does, which I don't believe. Paul also explains that the Fed is lying about inflation. So I'm not the only one calling Bernanke a liar. Then Ron Paul holds up a 1 oz. silver eagle and goes through the same exercise with gasoline that I did with oil on Monday to illustrate why silver/gold is real money that holds its value over time (video sourced from zerohedge - my only complaint about Ron Paul is that he has an opportunity to really hold Bernanke's feet to the fire in ... more »

 

 

Discrepancy

Turd Ferguson at Along The Watchtower - 3 hours ago
Two of these charts just ain't like the othere. Two of these charts just ain't quite the same. Actually, crude is now UP 40 cents. Combine this with what we know from our loyal Turdite regarding JPM indiscriminately dumping 10,000 contracts of gold in two minutes this morning. Clearly this was a coordinated attack, meant to create the cascading waterfall which ensued. 1705 and 34 are still holding, however, and must be watched closely for clues as to whether or not there is more bullshit to come. TF more »

 

 

Silver Chart Analysis

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 3 hours ago
Following is an 8 hour chart of the front month silver contract (that will be changing to May from March) detailing the technical action. All of the readers know by now that the commodity complex was being targetted by the Fed in today's comments coming from Chairman Bernanke. Prior to his testimony in front of the House Committee, silver was trading higher recovering from some mild profit taking late in yesterday's session and into early Asian trading in the evening. This is normal in a market especially after having put in a strong upside breakout on heavy volume from a recent con... more »

 

 

A Few Passing Observations

Dave in Denver at The Golden Truth - 4 hours ago
Just a quick update and follow-up on my recent housing commentary. I'm sure everyone saw that the Case-Shiller 20 metro area home price index dropped 1.1% on an unadjusted basis on a trailing 3-month basis for December vs. November LINK. The overall index is back to its 2002 level. I remember in 2005 telling people that home prices in general would eventually revert back to early 1990's levels (before the Clinton/Reuben/Greenspan strong dollar/money inflation policy was implemented) and I was laughed at heartily. A couple years later I decided we could well see 1981 levels, whic... more »

 

 

Window Dressing Doesn't Change The View Outside the Window

Eric De Groot at Eric De Groot - 5 hours ago

Jim has an excellent 'feel' for the markets because he not understands the forces driving the trends but also discipline needed to participate against the crowd regardless of the strings attached to price. Today's massive surge in volume, likely to exceed that which formed the 9/22 gap, suggests a strong attack on overhead resistance in silver (see chart 1). This suggests the gap will be tested... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] 




Dow Closes Below 13K For The First Time Since February 27, 2012; Flash Crashes

Risk off. On one of the highest volume days in months (for equity cash and futures), ES (the S&P e-mini futures contract) fell over 20pts from high to low following Bernanke's lack of expansionary comment. Right at the close we accelerated very fast losing around 6pts almost instantly as the market had a very jittery feel. The major financials were off 2.5-3% from the 10amET Bernanke speech release (and XLF was down 1.4% from that peak) but it was the precious metals that shocked. Gold had it largest percentage drop (over 5%) since early December 2008 (around $100) and Silver plunged over 7% at its worst, managing to come back a little to close down around 6%. Oil did not follow the Central-Plan (to talk down the print-fest) as WTI pushed back up to $107 and Brent over $123 as the USD rallied aggressively - now up over 0.5% on the week. Treasuries early dislike for the removal of the punchbowl was quickly dismissed as equities sold off this afternoon and we drifted back 1-2bps from high yields of the day (though still higher yields close to close). As we noted two days ago on Twitter, the market seems only capable of reacting to addition or removal of central bank liquidity and what was perhaps odd today was the delayed reaction - one of incredulity maybe at the gall of these printers to stop/pause.




BTFD...

Gold Tumbles More Than $100 As $1700 Stops Triggered

In what is increasingly peculiar market action, gold dropped over $100 intraday, following triggering of $1700 sell limits, at which point sell signals hit every bid all the way to $1685 then a knee jerk bounce appeared, in some rather chaotic late day trading in paper gold. Whether this is due solely to algo driven liquidations following the earlier described shift in sentiment, or has some assistance from central banks is irrelevant as anyone and everyone who is happy to convert paper fiat into hard currencies is taking advantage of this latest short-term rout, to prepare for the next battery of printing which will come with 100% certainty. Remember: as we have been saying since the summer of 2011, Bernanke needs a tumble in stocks to get a green light for more easing, and he obviously won't get that with the S&P where it is, nor with WTI still sticking to $107.







Apple Decouples From Stock Market Gravity

For the first time since the end of January (and for only the 4th day this year) AAPL is trading higher with the S&P trading down... the S&P has surged after each previous event, will it this time or has it lost its QE mojo?




Art Cashin And Europe's Clashin' Culture

As the ECB supposedly takes it foot off the gas, and EU Summits and 'events' loom large for the careening wagon of shared sacrifice, unity, and sovereign risk, perhaps it is the nodding donkeys of Greek and Italian technocrats juxtaposed with Ireland's feistier "R" word gambit (and of course Zee German Overlords) that makes Art Cashin reflect somewhat philosophically on recent headlines. Their stereotypical interpretation has him concerned as the potential for ever-increasing culture clashes increases across the pond as sour memories and generational hatreds abound.




Exhibit A: Selective Fat Finger Deus Ex

Presented with little comment except to say, get some 'price change' context before you start throwing fat finger fantasies around... as 10Y Treasury Futures dropped 0.5% peak to trough while Silver lost at least 2% at a time in 3 legs down...
 











Fed's Beige iPad Notes The Usual Regurgitated Fluff About The Economy

For those confused, the Fed's Beige Book has been upgraded to the Beige iPad (apparently Ben is not a fan of the black or white version). Regardless, the latest version has just been released spewing forth the usual reflexive platitudes, in which the economy is said to be better because the stock market is higher, and so forth. In other words, the same stuff that completely ignores $110 WTI. Via Bloomberg:
  • FED SAYS U.S. ECONOMY EXPANDED AT `MODEST TO MODERATE PACE'
  • FED SAYS CONSUMER SPENDING WAS `GENERALLY POSITIVE'
  • FED SAYS MANUFACTURING EXPANDED AT `STEADY PACE' NATIONWIDE
And more such headlines which nobody will actually read, except for the algos which scalp the optimistic tone put there precisely for such a purpose.




More Liquidity Extraction: Fed Resumes Reverse Repos

Dumping yet another liquidity cold shower in the aftermath of today's less than dovish Humphrey Hawkins speech by Bernanke (and sending precious metals even lower, albeit briefly), is the Fed's resumption of even more purely optical liquidity extractions, however symbolic, in the form of reverse repos, after the NY Fed just completed the first such operation since the dark days of summer 2011. As a reminder, the last time the Fed did these was back in August 2011 which cemented the market's plunge as it gave the market the impression that at least superficially no more money was coming in (intuitively it makes no sense to have Reverse Repos running at the same time as incremental liquidity), even as the reliquification baton was quietly being passed to the ECB. Today, reverse repos resume, as the Fed pays Primary Dealers an annualized rate of 0.17% in exchange for lending out $100 million in Treasurys. Will this continue? It depends entirely on what the economy, pardon, the Russell 2000 does. After all, that is the third and only mandate of the Fed that matter. And if the market considers this an indicator that QE3 really is delayed indefinitely, the FRBNY will mostly likely be forced to reassess.




QE3 Or Not To Be, A Brief Q & A

As good news appears to be bad news for now and the hopes of imminent dovish QE3-gasms gets pushed off a week or two, we thought it useful to dig into the mysterious central bank go-to play in a little more detail. Morgan Stanley's European Economics Team asks and answers five of the most frequently discussed questions with regard quantitative easing. From whether QE has worked to inflation fears and concerns over policy normalization and what happens if the public lose confidence in central bank liabilities, we suspect these questions, rather dovishly answered by the MS team, will reappear sooner rather than later, and as they interestingly note, the deployment of central bank balance sheets is, in essence, a confidence trick.




The Bernank: "The ECB Is Well Capitalized"

This will be one of those "one picture is worth a thousand words" posts...


Greek Bank Deposit Outflows Soar In January, Third Largest Ever


Just like the housing market in the US, following the modest blip higher in December Greek bank deposits, immediately the great unwashed took to calling an end of the Greek deposit outflow and seeing a glorious renaissance for the country's bank industry. Well look again. According to just released data from the Bank of Greece, January saw Greeks doing what they do best (in addition to striking of course): pulling their money from local banks, after a near record €5.3 billion, or the third highest on record, was withdrawn from the local banking system. As a result, total bank cash has now dropped to just €169 billion, down from €174 billion in December, and the lowest since 2006. This is an 18% decline from a year ago, or €37 billion less than the €206 billion last January, and is a whopping 30% lower than the all time deposit highs from 2007, as nearly €70 billion in cash has quietly either left the country or been parked deep in the local mattress bank.




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Gold Plunges $70 in an Hour, Silver Down 8% on U.S. QE Dampening Talk

Precious metals dived Wednesday afternoon – the crash being attributed to a statement by Ben Bernanke which appeared to imply that further Quantitative Easing was unlikely to be needed in the U.S.
by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com:
LONDON – What a difference an hour makes in the price of gold. One minute it was riding high fringing on hitting $1790 and within about an hour it had fallen around 4% to below the $1720s. Panic set in in the markets as stop loss selling and end-month profit taking added to the price crash. As befits its more volatile status, silver crashed back too and at the time of writing had come back around 8% at one time. Interestingly platinum, although it fell too, did not come back to the same extent sharply closing the gap between it and the gold price and coming to within $35 of the gold price.
A Statement to a U.S. Congressional Committee by U.S. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke seems to have taken the wind out of precious metals price sails with huge plunges seen across the board. Bernanke’s comments were seen as implying that more Quantitative easing was unlikely – and that rising oil prices could see a build-up in inflation raising the spectre that perhaps the earlier indications that interest rates would be kept at effectively zero levels for the next couple of years might no longer prove to be the case.
Read More @ MineWeb.com





Today’s Window Dressing Fall In Gold

by Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com:

My Dear Friends,
Please do not be bothered by today’s intervention. The following news is what creates the absolute need for QE.
It is the thesis of my Formula of 2006 of no major recovery that gives the foundation to my thesis of QE to Infinity.
Treasury Yield Descending Signals Slowdown
by John Detrixhe and Daniel Kruger – Feb 29, 2012 8:55 AM MT
The $10 trillion market for US Treasuries is signaling that the economic recovery may be poised to weaken even as consumer confidence rises toward pre-recession levels.
Read More @ JSMineset.com




Obama Issues ‘Policy Directive’ Exempting American Citizens From Indefinite Detention

Skeptics fear future administration could still incarcerate US citizens under NDAA
by Paul Joseph Watson, InfoWars.com:
Despite the fact that it was his administration that specifically demanded the controversial ‘indefinite detention’ provisions of the NDAA be applied to Americans, President Obama has issued a ‘Presidential Policy Directive’ that forbids the law from being used against US citizens.
A “fact sheet” released by the White House last night contains details of a “Presidential Policy Directive” which explains that the administration will not seek to use the so-called ‘kidnapping provision’ of the National Defense Authorization Act to incarcerate American citizens without trial.
“Section 1022 does not apply to U.S. citizens, and the President has decided to waive its application to lawful permanent residents arrested in the United States,” states the White House fact sheet (PDF).
Read More @ InfoWars.com



Obama Is Going To Win

Admin at Jim Rogers Blog - 7 minutes ago
I would tell you that Obama is going to win. I don't want him to win. It's not good for America. But Larry, it's hard to defeat a sitting president and he's spending a lot of money. Things will feel good this year just because he's throwing money into the market and into the economy. - *in CNBC * *Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.* more »

 

 

Bernanke tries talking down Commodities

Trader Dan at Trader Dan's Market Views - 39 minutes ago
Today was Fed Chairman Bernanke's chance to testisfy before the Congress' Financial Services Committee. Here is a quick synopsis of his comments as I see them. "The economy is getting better based on what we can see of the employment numbers but it is not growing at a fast enough clip to justify any immediate change in our accomodative monetary policy. The uptick in hiring has been helped by this policy and any change to it at the present time is not warranted. Real Estate is still a concern. Us fiscal condition is dire and faces a serious challenge at the end of this year. Inflatio... more » 




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Bots and EE Simultaneously Attack

Turd Ferguson at Along The Watchtower - 1 hour ago
First of all, I greatly apologize for the site being down yet again. I enrolled yesterday in the site "Alexa" with surveys the site and measures the traffic. Perhaps the overload of traffic that is crashing the site is due to an initial Alexa survey? Maybe. Of course, when the crash of the site coincides perfectly with a crash in gold and silver, it sure makes me wonder. The reason given for the smash of gold and silver is the testimony of The Bernank. Hmmmm. Of course, stocks aren't down very much. Hmmmm. Look, Santa has warned us repeatedly that there is extreme volatility coming.... more » 

 

Ron Paul To Ben Bernanke: "People Lose Trust In The Government Because You Lie To Them About Inflation"

Anytime Ron Paul sits across from Ben Bernanke you know sparks will fly. Sure enough, they did: starting 50 seconds into the clip below, Ron Paul, guns blazing, asks the Chairman if he does his own shopping, if he is aware of what true inflation is, and if he knows that Americans don't trust the government because they are being lied to about inflation. And it only gets better, once Paul starts brandishing a silver coin. The punchline: "The Fed will self-destruct anyway when the money is gone" - amen. And ironically letting the Fed keep on doing what it is doing will achieve that in the fastest possible way. In fact, letting the system cannibalize itself with no further hindrances may be the best option currently available - just go to town

Ron Paul Assaults Ben Bernanke On Parallel Currencies

 

Ron Paul: Restore the American Republic



U.S. Conducting Criminal Libor Probe

by Carrick Mollenkamp, Reuters:
(Reuters) – The Justice Department is conducting a criminal probe into whether the world’s biggest banks manipulated a global benchmark rate that is at the heart of a wide range of loans and derivatives, from trillions of dollars of mortgages and bonds to interest rate swaps, a person familiar with the matter said.
While the Justice Department’s inquiry into the setting of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, was known, the criminal aspect of the probe was not.
A criminal inquiry underscores the serious nature of a worldwide investigation that includes regulators and law-enforcement agencies in the United States, Japan, Canada and the UK.
Read More @ Reuters.com





Just like the housing market in the US, following the modest blip higher in December Greek bank deposits, immediately the great unwashed took to calling an end of the Greek deposit outflow and seeing a glorious renaissance for the country's bank industry. Well look again. According to just released data from the Bank of Greece, January saw Greeks doing what they do best (in addition to striking of course): pulling their money from local banks, after a near record €5.3 billion, or the third highest on record, was withdrawn from the local banking system. As a result, total bank cash has now dropped to just €169 billion, down from €174 billion in December, and the lowest since 2006. This is an 18% decline from a year ago, or €37 billion less than the €206 billion last January, and is a whopping 30% lower than the all time deposit highs from 2007, as nearly €70 billion in cash has quietly either left the country or been parked deep in the local mattress bank.




A Strange Chart, In More Ways Than One

Everyone and their mum knows by now that Italian bonds have rallied since the first LTRO and we are told that this is symptomatic of 'improvement'. While we hate to steal the jam from that doughnut, we note Peter Tchir's interesting chart showing how focused the strength is in the short-end of the bond curve (which we know is thanks to the ECB's SMP program preference and the LTRO skew) but more notably the significantly less ebullient performance of the less manipulated and more fast-money, mark-to-market reality CDS market as we suspect, like him, the CDS is pricing in the longer-term subordination and termed out insolvency risk much more clearly than the illiquid bond market does, and perhaps bears closer scrutiny for a sense of what real risk sentiment really looks like.




Europe Closes On Lows As Stigma Trade Ramps Up

As we have discussed extensively, and noted this morning specifically, the LTRO is stigmatizing credit markets in Europe, no matter what European leaders or bank CEOs tell you. European credit and equity markets dropped dramatically post LTRO 2 and accelerated on Bernanke's lack of monetary exuberance. Financials underperformed but most notably, subordinated credit spreads widened significantly more than seniors holding at yesterday's wide levels. The Stigma trade is occurring in single-name credit also with the spread between LTRO and non-LTRO banks widening once again after compressing for a few days but it is the Senior-Sub spread decompression that is the liquid trade for European bank's implicit subordination for now (as the entire capital structure of LTRO banks just became subordinated at best and more levered and subordinated at worst). The EUR tumbled over 100pips towards 1.3350 as the USD rallied back to the week's highs. Silver (and Gold) crashed into the European close (down over 7% on the day at one point) while Treasuries sold off and European sovereigns leaked wider (except Portugal which crashed and Italy which compressed modestly). Quite a day.




Gold, Silver Plunge As Fears Monetary Punchbowl Is Taken Away Spread

It seems the initial drop was merely the appetizer as Gold and Silver are now down considerably...





Goldman's Take On Bernanke: "No Clear Easing Signal"

Pouring more gasoline on the fire (or, actually, quite the opposite), here is Goldman's Hatzius who confirms that anyone who wants their QuuEee3ee, will just have to wait.




Ben Pulls The Punch Bowl - Market Unhappy

The slightly delayed reaction to Bernanke's semi-annual report to Congress is now rather impressive as clearly the market is saying 'QE3-off' for now, in line with our expectation from earlier when commenting on the GDP number we said that "As for the reason why the market is less than delighted with this "beat" is that with EUR Brent at record highs, courtesy of everyone else but primarily the ECB doing the equivalent of QE 3 in 2011's biggest deception play, it firmly take the Fed's punchbowl away at least for 3 months. More at 10 am when Bernanke testifies." 10 came and went, and the heroin addict known as the stock market was less than delighted that the only drug promised by Ben is the ZIRP methadone which does absolutely nothing for incremental liquidity. The question then is - without more QEesing, where will the next trillion in liquidity come from?




Chicago PMI Soars To 64, Beats Estimate Of 61, Employment Index Highest Since 1984


Earlier today, when forecasting the Chicago PMI, we warned to "expect another massive beat courtesy of consumers confident that they can have Apple apps, if not so much food, since they still don't pay their mortgages." Sure enough, the economic data is now straight out of China, with the Chicago PMI not only trouncing expectations, printing at 64, on consensus of 61 (the highest since last April when the peak of the liquidity bubble popped and the stock market rolled over), but, wait for it, the Employment index came at 64.2, up from 54.7, which was the highest employment print since April 1984! At this point it is no longer worth commenting on economic data, as between this, the NAR, the consumer confidence, it was all become farce of a blur. we now expect February unemployment to print negative as the labor participation rate slides to 50%, and seasonal adjustments and birth/date fixtures account for 5 million "additions" to jobs. One thing that is sure. There will be no more easing for a looooooooong time. Kiss any hope of more trillions in central bank liquidity goodbye.




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