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Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Dramatic Aerial Footage Shows What The Oroville Dam Looks Like Now


Earlier this month, we all heard the news that the Oroville Dam was damaged, and that thousands of residents living in its shadow would have to be evacuated. Fortunately the dam held, and the residents of Oroville were able to return to their homes. For the most part the story has since faded from the news. However, the damage remains.

Huge Shake Up At World's Largest Hedge Fund: Ray Dalio Steps Down As Co-CEO; Rubinstein Departs

“As I love markets, I’m excited about this change and expect to remain a professional investor at Bridgewater until I die or until those running Bridgewater don’t want me any more.” - Ray Dalio

The Biggest Peddler of Fake News ...

Hmmm, chicken.

Uber's CEO Wants You To Know He's "Ashamed" Of Leaked Video Footage; Says He Needs To "Grow Up"

"To say that I am ashamed is an extreme understatement.  It’s clear this video is a reflection of me and the criticism we’ve received is a stark reminder that I must fundamentally change as a leader and grow up."

Bunds Are Crashing

After reaching a record low yield of -95.8bps at the end of last week, 2Y german bond yields are exploding higher. The last 3 days - capped by today's spike - have seen a 13bps explosion - the most since Dec 2015 (and second biggest spike in four years).

Goldman's Top FX Strategist Robin Brooks Is Quitting

"Since I joined in May 2010, Goldman taught be to boil an issue down to its essence, write it up simply and … make a pretty picture that tells the story. That’s basically what I have done these last few years and I have loved every minute of it."

WTI/RBOB Tumble As US Crude Inventories Hit New Record High, Production Surges

After API's surprise gasoline build (sending RBOB prices lower), DOE reported a draw (though smaller than expected) but crude saw the 8th weekly build in a row - pushing US crude inventories to a new record high. Production continued to surge (above 9mm) to new cycle highs. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes, " I think we can conservatively say the rebalancing isn't happening -- or isn't happening as the bulls expected."

The US Warms Up To Trump: 3 In 4 Americans Approve Of Trump Address

In a new poll from CNN/ORC, more than 75% of Americans reacted positively to Trump's Tuesday night "Presidential" address to Congress with 57% reacting "very positively."  That said, CNN was quick to point out that Trump's "very positive" rating fell well below Obama's 68% rating in his first address to a join session of Congress in 2009.

US Construction Spending Tumbles As Federal Building Crashes Most Since 2010

Headline US construction spending tumbled 1.0% MoM in January - the biggest drop since April 2016. The biggest driver was a collapse in Federal construction (tumbled 7.4% MoM) with public residential building crashing over 15% - the most since 2010.

"Manufacturing Is Far From Booming" - PMI Drops Despite Surge In ISM New Orders

With real spending declining and core durables goods orders and shipments fading, it's perhaps not a surprise that Markit PMI Manufacturing turned lower in Feb to 54.2 (missing expectations) with their chief economist warning "manufacturing is far from booming." Of course, just as with China, ISM provided an opposite perspective on US Manufacturing, beating expectations and rising to Aug 2014 highs.

China Warns It Must "Reallocate" Half A Million Unemployed Workers

China needs to reallocate half a million steel and coal workers in 2017 due to capacity cuts in these industries, China's labour minister said on Wednesday, as the world's second-largest economy tries to combat excess in the bloated industries.

Dow 21,000

Well that escalated quickly...

Wall Street Scrambles To Change The Trump Narrative Again

Until yesterday, the prevailing Wall Street consensus was that in the absence of specifics from President Trump on his economic and fiscal plans, the market would be disappointed, and proceed to slide. It did not, in fact quite the opposite.  As a result, the world's best paid strategist have once again revised the Trump-related narrative.

Bonds & Bullion Battered On Heavy Volume As Dow Nears 21,000

The moves in markets have acelerated notably in the last few minutes with a few billion dollars of notional gold being dumped, silver down, and Treasury yields exploding higher as The Dow pushes to open at 21,000...

How We Got Here In One Sentence

In every annual budget debate since the 1980s, one side figures out that the way to get what it wants – which is higher spending – is to frame the request in a particular, ingenious way: We have to borrow and spend way more now if we want to borrow and spend way less later.

Real Personal Spending Crashes Most Since 2009

While the key number analysts were looking for in today's Personal Spending data was the PCE Price Index, both headline and core, which rose by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively, just shy of the Fed's 2.0% inflation target, the internals on US incomes and spending were just as notable.

"Trump Makes America Wait Again" - Why Not Everyone Was Happy With Trump's Address

"Financial bubbles, most notably the dotcom era, have proven that hopes and dreams can keep the market irrational longer than most of us can remain solvent. At some point though, reality catches up. And 40 days in to Trump’s administration, there’s little sign that Trump will deliver much of a boost to the U.S. economy on any imminent horizon."

30Y Yields Tops 3% As March Rate Hike Odds Spike Above 80%

An avalanche of hawkish Fed speakers appear to have got their way as March rate-hike odds have extended yesterday's move to 82% this morning. As stocks soar after a more presidential Trump, bond yields are also rising, catching up to stocks after diverging for two weeks.

German Inflation Jumps 2.2%, Surpassing ECB Target And Highest Since 2012

Following a series of "hot" inflation prints from Germany's states, moments ago German inflation rose more than expected, printing at 2.2% above the 2.1% consensus estimate, up from 1.9% in January and surpassing the ECB's target of a rate just under 2 percent for the first time since August 2012, the peak of the Eurozone debt crisis.

Trump Supporters Praise "Milder", "Presidential" Address: Five Speech Takeaways

While some were disappointed by the lack of specifics in Trump's speech, many others - and certainly Trump's group of core, faithful supporters - praised his "milder", more conciliatory tone, in a speech that was among his most "presidential" public addresses to date.

BofA Throws In The Cautionary Towel: Raises S&P Price Target From 2,300 To 2,450

Overnight, Bank of America's Savita Subramanyan became the first sellside strategist in recent weeks to throw in the cautionary towel, and raised the bank's year-end S&P price target from 2,300 to 2,450 to "reflect an increasing likelihood that we are entering the typical later stages of a bull market, during which fundamentals typically take a back seat to sentiment and technicals."

For The First Time, Federal Court Explicitly Establishes Filming Police As A Right

by Jack Burns, Activist Post:
There’s been an ongoing battle between police and the citizenry over who has the right to film in public. Disputes between police and the public have led to cameras being confiscated by police, and citizens being manhandled, beaten, and arrested. Now, it seems, the courts are weighing in, and not on the side of police.
The court’s opinion comes from a federal civil rights lawsuit filed by Phillip Turner vs. Driver, Grinald, and Dyess (2017). The plaintiffs are all officers from Ft. Worth, Texas. According to court documents, “Plaintiff-Appellant Phillip Turner was video recording a Fort Worth police station from a public sidewalk across the street when Defendants-Appellees Officers Grinalds and Dyess approached him and asked him for identification. Turner refused to identify himself, and the officers ultimately handcuffed him and placed him in the back of a patrol car.”
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Source of National Security Breach IDENTIFIED: The Leaker is David Laufman of DOJ

by Mike Cernovich, Danger & Play:
Obama holdover David Laufman is the source of the national security leaks, Cernovich Media can exclusively report. David Laufman, Chief of Counterintelligence, has all classified information regarding espionage pass by his desk.
The leaks have wrongly been blamed on the FBI, sources tell me, leading to a morale issue with the agency.
“The FBI prides itself as being seen as apolitical,” one source told me, “and are frustrated that they are being accused of playing politics.”
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State Department Employee Has Brakes Cut For the Second Time-What She Knows?

by Dave Hodges, The Common Sense Show:
For the second time in 3 weeks, State Department employee, Monika Wesolowski has had the brakes on her car targeted. She was barely able to avoid disaster. I was originally contacted by Monika’s friend, Mary Tindall, who provided me with the details. Further, Monika and Mary have informed me that Monika’s communications are being tampered with as they have both informed me that the communications anomolies that are transpiring when they speak (eg the playing of Monika’s voicemail while she is talking on the phone), are increasing in frequency and severity.
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Six Immune-Building Foods and Herbs You Need to Consume to Stay Healthy

by Amy Goodrich, Natural News:
Usually, your immune system does an excellent job of protecting your body against disease-causing microbes. However, sometimes bacteria or viruses can slip past your body’s defense line and make you sick. If this happens, many people rely on prescription medication or antibiotics to get rid of the sick-making invaders.
Alexander Fleming’s discovery of penicillin in 1928 gave rise to the era of antibiotics. While antibiotics have saved many lives in the past, today they don’t seem to be as efficient and revered as they once were. Now they come with a host of health-damaging side effects and add to the growing antibiotic-resistance thread.
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Oops, this Isn’t Supposed to Happen in a Rosy Credit Scenario

by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street:
For the first time in the US since the Financial Crisis.

Let’s forget for a moment the Fed, its rate-increase flip-flopping, and what that might do in theory to the economy, and let’s look instead at what companies are actually doing, how they’re responding to the environment they find themselves in. Because now, something is happening that we haven’t seen since the trough of the Financial Crisis.
Credit growth no matter what has been the mantra. It could never be enough. If companies borrow more from banks, they’ll use that money to invest in productive activities or equipment and grow. That’s the theory. And it would move the economy forward.
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Why Tech Titans Hate Trump

from Henry Makow:
Palo Alto, California – I just came from a lunch on University Avenue in Palo Alto. The lunch was a large table in the back area of a well-reviewed restaurant. The participants were the top staffers of the Venture Capital companies of Silicon Valley. I got invited as the date of someone who was on the inside and nobody ever asked where I worked. I realized, soon after I arrived, that everyone was thought to be from the Stanford Silicon Valley Venture Capital offices up on Sandhill Road. I was an, unintentional, covert fly on the wall.
Now I know how the Trump Vs. California thing happened and why it is the most misnamed war in history.
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017

NY Teamsters Pension Becomes First To Run Out Of Money As Expert Warns "Pension Tsunami" Is Coming


"This is a quiet crisis, but it’s very real. There are currently 200 other plans on track for insolvency - that’s going to affect anywhere from 1.5 to 2 million people.  The prognosis is bleak minus some new legislative help. Municipal and state plans are the next to go down - that’s a pension tsunami that’s coming."


China Backs Russia To Veto Western-Backed UN Sanctions On Syria

China backed Russia on Tuesday, when both nations vetoed to protect the Syrian government from a UNSC resolution, blocking an attempt by Western powers to impose sanctions over accusations the Assad regime had (again) used chemical weapons.

Making The Same Mistakes Again (Remember The 'Lord Clive')

"Every night on American television news programs, pundits, politicians, and retired generals perform their sabre rattling, stating that the world at large had better cooperate with the US or else... If this does play out along the lines of the sinking of the Lord Clive, it will be the American people who will pay the price for their leaders’ reckless behavior."


Obamas To Make Over $60 Million From Book Deal

Several publishers are outbidding each other in a blockbuster auction for the global rights to two books by Barack and Michelle Obama, where the latest bid has surpassed a record $60 million for presidential memoirs.

Energy, Money, And The Destruction Of Equilibrium

"No matter what the economic leaders say, these actions prove to me and many others that their mental models of the world have failed. They’re able to hide behind authority and academic vocabulary which if put in plain terms for the lay person could be described as theft, ponzi, tyrannical and moronic."

Caught On Tape: Uber CEO Argues With Driver Over Declining Fares - "Take Responsibility For Your Own Shit"

“Bullshit.  Some people don't like to take responsibility for their own shit. They blame everything in their life on somebody else. Good luck!”

Meanwhile, In Germany...

The floats at Karneval parades across southern and western Germany are known for their biting satire. As The Local reports, this year the main target of their derision was only ever going to be one man.

Lavrov Vs. McCain: Is Russia An Enemy?

If we believe the struggle is for “global democracy” and “human rights,” then that may put Putin on the other side. But how then can we be allies of President el-Sissi of Egypt and Erdogan of Turkey, and the kings, emirs and sultans of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman? But if the new world struggle is about defending ourselves and our civilization, Russia would appear to be not only a natural ally, but a more critical and powerful one than that crowd in Kiev.

RBOB Slides After Surprise Gasoline Inventory Build; New Record Glut In Crude

After a volatile day of White House rumors and denials, and OPEC headlines, WTI and RBOB ended the day lower ahead of tonight's API data which showed a slightly smaller than expected crude build (+2.5mm against expectations of +3mm). However RBOB prices tumbled after an unexpected build.

March Hike Odds Soar Above 75% After Hawkish Assault From Dudley, Williams

The Fed is really doing its best to convince the market that a March rate hike is coming, and it seems to be working.

The Dow Streak May Be Finally Over, But In February Everything Was Up


Just Buy The Dip? FBN Says Don't Overthink Stocks

For nine straight days, the buy-the-f##king-dip crowd has been ubiquitous...

Trump Proposes Cutting State Department Budget By 37%

The White House is proposing to cut spending by 37% for the State Department and U.S. Agency for International Development budget, in order to free up some of the billions in funding Trump has promised the Defense department.

Tax Strike? IRS Has Received 13% Fewer Returns This Year

As of the end of last week, the Internal Revenue Service had received 13.3% fewer tax returns from individual filers than last year (42.5 million versus 49.0 million).  Moreover, visits to the IRS.gov website are down 16.2%.  All this has put a crimp in tax refunds, which are down 14.4% versus last year ($103 billion versus $121 billion).

BofA's Institutional Clients Are Suddenly Selling Everything

Bank of America clients’ optimism continued to wane last week as clients sold US equities for the second consecutive week after having been net buyers the prior 14 weeks since the election. Even private clients who have been the most aggressive buyers in the past few months, joined the selling? What did they sell: pretty much everything.

Putting It All Together...

Population growth, economic growth, and resultant energy consumption are inexorably slowing. The Federal Reserve knows it can not stop this and is simply slowing the inevitable with interest rate cuts to incent greater consumption via skyrocketing credit/debt...

YouTube Users Now Watch 1 Billion Hours Per Day, Set To Surpass US TV Viewership

YouTube viewers world-wide are now watching more than 1 billion hours of videos a day, set to eclipse the 1.25 billion hours of television Americans watch daily. This stunning number represents a 10-fold growth since 2012, when YouTube users clocked in 100 million hours per day.

"It's T-Day" - Trader Warns "Standby For Disappointment"

"Trading on the back of U.S. stimulus could be a dead theme by Friday..."

Massive East Coast Internet Outage Pinned On Amazon Cloud Failure

"We've identified the issue as high error rates with S3 in US-EAST-1, which is also impacting applications and services dependent on S3. We are actively working on remediating the issue."

Number Of Distressed US Retailers Highest Since The Great Recession

"Moody's-rated US retailers rated Caa or Ca today make up just over 13% of our total rated retail portfolio, which is the highest level since the Great Recession.  As they struggle to survive, distressed retailers can take more desperate measures, including highly promotional pricing that can border on irrational.  This leaves stronger firms with the choice of either competing in a race to the bottom, or giving up sales in order to preserve margin."

Oil Spikes On OPEC/White House Headlines

A double-whammy of bullish news hit WTI crude futures shortly after 1300ET today sending prices soaring. First, The White House denied earlier rumors on changes to the ethanol mandate; and then Reuters confirmed OPEC production cut compliance steady at 94%.

Tech Tyrants Strike Back: Angela Warren, SGT Report & Stan Deyo

from Hagmann Report:
Tonight on the Hagmann and Hagmann Report…
Pizzagate broke during the weirdest and most furious General Election in anyones memory.  Those with eyes to see and even a tea spoon of discernment saw a demonized Hillary Clinton throw out disingenuous platitudes and generic rhetoric while her opponent, 45th President of the United States, President Donald J Trump worked overtime to quell his obvious incredulity, trusting that the people would respond on November 8, 2016.
And boy, did the people respond.  Special Team Hagmann “thank you’s” are in order to the great Americans in: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.  You folks did it and this nation is grateful.  As a Kalifornia transplant, I am grateful.
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Those Systems That Aren’t Busy Being Born Are Busy Dying

by Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds:
What we have is a bunch of sclerotic, dying institutions and systems resisting anything and everything that threatens to disrupt the status quo.
One way to understand the rising sense of disintegration and discord around the globe is to realize that those systems that aren’t busy being born are busy dying–and virtually none of our primary systems are busy being born.
The line is from Bob Dylan’s song It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding): “he not busy being born is busy dying.”
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Wikileaks Busts McCain in Russian Cash Treason Before Russian Ambassador Died (VIDEO)

by Barry Soetoro The Sleuth Journal:
Wikileaks BUSTS Senator John McCain asking Russia for Campaign Cash! Two days before Wikileaks revealed this shocking treasonous act, Russian UN Ambassador (Vitaly Churkin) DROPS DEAD from a heart attack!
Was Churkin killed to cover up McCain’s illegal campaign money scheme — or was Churkin only ‘relocated’ to protect McCain from treason charges?
US Senator John McCain keeps smearing Donald Trump and other free thinkers as being somehow “involved with Russia” or “agents of Putin.”
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SILENT ON OBAMA FOR 8 YEARS, GLOBALIST GEORGE BUSH COMES OUT SWINGING AGAINST PRESIDENT TRUMP

by Geoffrey Grider, Now The End Begins:
Bush was asked about the media’s role in light of President Donald Trump’s recent characterization of the media as “enemies of America.” He noted he spent a lot of time during his two terms trying to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to embrace an independent press.
FORMER PRESIDENT GEORGE BUSH OPENS UP ON TRUMP’S WAR WITH THE MEDIA, RUSSIA AND TRAVEL BAN AFTER 8 YEARS OF SILENCE ON BARACK OBAMA
In a wide-ranging interview that shied away from directly criticizing the current commander in chief, former President George W. Bush said it’s critical for the media to hold accountable “people who abuse their power.” He also rejected the current administration’s controversial immigration policy.
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PIZZAGATE | NEW TUNNEL DISCOVERY. Connects At Least 4 Of Alefantis’s Properties

from Steemit:
As Above, So Below. As Within, So Without.”
There are miles of old abandoned water tunnels directly under a lot of Alefantis’s properties of interest. The picture above is of workmen in one of the tunnels circa 1900s.
First off there is a bit of background on the tunnels then there’s a map outlining all the properties of interest in relation to the tunnel network. I’ve also included examples of some of the tunnels discovered.
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Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Admits to Having Terror Cells Situated and Ready to Strike in US (VIDEO)

by Jim Hoft, The Gateway Pundit:
A recent video posted this week shows Islamic Republic strategist, Hassan Abbassi, discussing the destructive potential of Iran’s hidden army within the US.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Commander Abbassi admitted to having terror cells situation and ready to strike in the United States.
Abbassi: I’ll be brief. We have two million Iranians there. Be certain that I will raise a guerilla army from amongst them against you. You know this well. Look how vulnerable you were on 9-11 when four Arabs who don’t know how to fight managed to endanger your foundations.
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Poll: Half of College Students Believe Their Student Loans Will Be Forgiven

by Katherine Rodriguez, Breitbart:
Half of college students believe their student loans will be forgiven after graduation, according to a recent poll.
LendEDU, “a private firm that connects students and their families with student loans and loan refinancing,” conducted a survey that found 49.8 percent of students believe the government would forgive their student loans after graduation, the New York Post reported.
Despite what these students believe, there are actually a limited number of instances where the government can forgive student loans.
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Peru’s Silver Production Surged Early In 2016, Then Suffered Double-Digit Decline in December

by Steve St. Angelo, SRSRocco Report:
While Peru’s silver production surged in the beginning of 2016, it experienced a double-digit decline in December versus the same month last year. Peru is the second largest silver producing country in the world, trailing Mexico by approximately 40 million oz, but now leading third-ranked China by a wide margin.
Peru started off 2016 with a bang by increasing silver production 14% in the first three months of the year:
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Trump Considers Quitting UN Human Rights Council

by Carol Adl, Your News Wire:
President Donald Trump is considering withdrawing the United States from the UN Human Rights Council.
The Trump administration has reportedly accused the UNHRC of being biased against Israel and are questioning its usefulness.
Press TV reports:
A final decision on whether the US would leave the council is expected to be made by the president himself, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, as well as the new US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, POLITICO reported, citing informed sources.
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